Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX ‘Lehman moment’ — Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a fresh rejection at $17,000 on Nov. 18 as nervous markets weathered more FTX fallout.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC gets a $12,000 price target

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD failing to flip $17,000 to support — a trend in place for almost a week.

The pair, like major altcoins, remained firmly tied down by cold feet over the FTX debacle and its knock-on effects for various crypto businesses.

For analysts, the outlook remained just as grim, with already dismal forecasts worsening in light of recent events.

“This underperformance of all crypto assets is here to stay until the bulk of uncertainly has cleared up — likely only near the turn of the new year,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote in its latest circular to Telegram channel subscribers on the day.

In an extensive market summary, QCP wrote that its price forecasts for both Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) now had to drop to reflect the impact of FTX.

Updating a prognosis based on Elliott Wave theory from June, it confirmed BTC/USD now had a target of $12,000 and ETH/USD $800.

“As a side-note, crypto markets have been trading akin to commodities ever since the 2017 top — with extended Wave 5s as the longest wave,” the post added.

“Hence such potential price action with new lows into the new year would be characteristic of previous bear market sell-offs.”

An accompanying chart highlighted the divergence between crypto and stocks in November, with t correlation between them firmly shaken thanks to crypto’s underperformance.

BTC/USD vs. ETH/USD vs. S&P 500 chart. Source: QCP Capital

Popular trader and analyst Cantering Clark, meanwhile, noted that if the current bear market in risk assets were to copy the global financial crisis, heavy losses were still to come.

“The Lehman bankruptcy was the climax of the 2008 financial crisis. It was bottom material qualitatively, but the market paused and then committed to 40% lower,” part of a tweet read.

“Never say never, and don’t let your guard down.”S&P 500 annotated chart. Source: Cantering Clark/Twitter

As Cointelegraph reported, $13,500 has also become a popular downside target.

Crypto pie “being cut massively”

Continuing, QCP also voiced concerns over declining volumes and open interest (OI) across both centralized (CEXs) and decentralized (DEXs) exchanges.

Related: US crypto exchanges lead Bitcoin exodus: Over $1.5B in BTC withdrawn in one week

“So far, CEX derivative exchange volumes have been most affected. Combined futures OI is now back to pre-2021 levels, a massive backward step for the industry,” it wrote.

Bitcoin futures open interest chart. Source: QCP Capital

On the topic of DEXs, it said the data “implies the entire crypto pie is being cut massively.”

“Overall DeFi TVL is now less than 1/4 last year’s peak!” the post summarized alongside more explanatory charts.

“Even DEXes which would be expected to gain the most, have only seen volumes rise to Jul/Aug levels, even with all the emergency token/stables/chain swapping that needed to be done post-FTX.”DEX volumes chart. Source: QCP Capital

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